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In anticipation of the upcoming true-up round of the National Telecommunications and Information Administration’s (NTIA’s) Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) program, Vernonburg Group takes this opportunity to update our “rainy-day fund” cost estimate.  

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On September 3, 2026, NTIA announced that the true-up round will allow states and territories (“Eligible Entities”) to direct a portion of their BEAD savings “toward newly identified unserved locations.” Currently, NTIA is preparing to provide each Eligible Entity with a list of unserved locations, incorporating the latest FCC Broadband Map Fabric data, and identifying locations not addressed by the Eligible Entity’s Final Proposal and other locations that remain unserved within the Eligible Entity’s jurisdiction as a result of defaults or changes in previous federal and state broadband programs. NTIA has not yet provided an estimate on the number of locations or amount of funding this will take, but it has said that the amount of additional funding approved will be the Eligible Entity’s average cost of deployment per BSL in its approved Final Proposal multiplied by the number of BSLs in the final Supplemental BEAD Eligible Location List.  

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In February 2026, we estimated that a rainy-day funding round may require as much as $7.6 billion of additional BEAD funding to connect all remaining unserved and underserved locations. Since releasing that estimate, as NTIA acknowledges, a number of locations have been connected through other federal and state programs, some have been defaulted on, and still others were either erroneously listed as served when they were not or erroneously listed as serviceable locations. Our new estimate shows a decline in the number of locations that are unserved and underserved to approximately 900,000 (200,000 less than our previous estimate). With new information based on the approved Final Proposals, we can also estimate that based on a similar mix of technologies as approved in Eligible Entities’ Final Proposals, BEAD funding needed to connect these 900,000 should be approximately $5.3 billion. This estimate could change if, for example, a new technology mix emerges.  

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In terms of broader impact and potential for advancing the other statutory objectives of the BEAD program, if we assume that is the amount of funding needed, that means the Digital Opportunity Dividend is now approximately $18.1 billion (i.e., $23.4 billion after approval of all Final Proposals – Estimated $5.3 billion for NTIA’s true-up round = $18.1 billion). NTIA has indicated that supplemental guidance on that larger tranche of funding is forthcoming.