What Percentage of BEAD Eligible Locations Can LEO Satellite Providers Serve at Scale?
New analysis finds that LEO satellite providers can realistically serve at most 26% of BEAD-eligible unserved and underserved locations nationwide.
Key Takeaways
1. The entire toolkit of broadband technologies will be needed to close the U.S.’s broadband availability gap—end-to-end fiber, hybrid fiber coaxial, fixed wireless, and low earth orbit (LEO) satellite.
2. Cost is an important consideration in selecting BEAD subgrantees, but a proposed project’s ability to scale and deliver required throughput, latency, and service quality to all locations in the project area must also be considered.
3. LEO satellite providers can realistically serve up to 26% of BEAD-eligible unserved and underserved locations nationwide.
4. Prudent stewardship of BEAD deployment funds will free up funds—a Digital Opportunity Dividend—that can be spent on broadband adoption and other non-deployment programs.
Weighing More Technology Choices for BEAD Deployment Projects
The National Telecommunications and Information Administration’s (NTIA) latest guidance on its Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) program directed state and territorial broadband offices to undertake a technology neutral selection process for applicants to extend high speed broadband to unserved and underserved locations, placing proposals to deploy end-to-end fiber connections on an equal footing with other technologies, including hybrid fiber coaxial, licensed and unlicensed fixed wireless, and low earth orbit (LEO) satellite connectivity. Pivoting from prior guidance, NTIA now advises states to meet the “Benefit of the Bargain” and choose projects based on one primary consideration: “Minimal BEAD Program Outlay,” or put even more simply, the cost per serviceable location.
Based on early reports, LEO satellite providers have significantly increased the number of unserved and underserved locations for which they are seeking BEAD subgrants.
Despite changes to the guidance, NTIA still provides deference to state and territorial broadband offices to select broadband technologies that best meet the needs of communities on a project-by-project basis. With nearly all broadband offices reviewing Internet service providers’ (ISP) applications in advance of NTIA’s September 4 deadline for Final Proposals, it is critical that broadband offices meaningfully consider their communities’ needs at the individual project level, and layer in the unique factors that impact the decision-making process for that project—including factors such as geography, topography, population density, and tree canopy coverage.
NTIA’s guidance also charges broadband offices with assessing whether proposed technology in a BEAD application will meet the definition of Priority Broadband Project[i] as outlined in the June Restructuring Policy Notice and the statute. In addition, broadband offices must closely review the requirements for scalability and collect evidence that the applicant has sufficient capacity to provide high-speed connectivity to every unserved and underserved location in the proposed funding area, as well as the ability to scale to meet evolving needs over time. According to NTIA, “the ability to scale involves the technology used, how a network is engineered, the service plans offered, and the network operator's policies and practices regarding network upgrades.” (FAQ, page 62).
In this analysis, we look at the percentage of BEAD eligible locations that LEO satellite could realistically serve while satisfying BEAD’s speed, latency, and reliability requirements.
LEO Satellite Service Raises Capacity Concerns in Higher Density Areas
While LEO satellite service is likely the most cost-effective option for project areas with low populations densities, standard LEO satellite beams lack sufficient network capacity to meet the BEAD program’s minimum speed requirement of 100/20 Mbps in denser areas.
For instance, based on public information available from Starlink, a Starlink V2 satellite can serve approximately 419 Broadband Serviceable Locations (BSLs) with a reliable 100/20 Mbps link using its 63 square mile beam.[ii] In other words, Starlink can provide 100/20 Mbps service for up to 6.66 BSLs per square mile. [iii]
Applying the FCC’s latest broadband availability data from July 2025, the total number of unserved and underserved locations that ISPs can reliably serve with LEO satellite is approximately 670,000 (14% of eligible locations); i.e., areas at or below the location density threshold.
Taking an alternative approach to account for the many unserved and underserved locations that are scattered between served locations in census blocks with higher BSL densities, the total number of BEAD eligible locations that can be reliably served with LEO satellite connectivity increases to 1.19M locations (26% of eligible locations).
It is worth emphasizing that these are optimistic scenarios given other factors impacting service quality, such as the presence of higher tier customers competing for available network capacity, and factors impacting signal strength, such as physical structures and tree foliage.
In short, under this optimistic approach, ISPs planning to serve BEAD eligible unserved and underserved locations with LEO satellite could only serve 26% of all such remaining locations nationwide and still meet the BEAD program’s speed requirements. The figure below summarizes the percentage of BEAD eligible locations realistically served by Starlink’s Generation 2 constellation in each state and territory eligible for BEAD deployment subgrants.
These technological limitations underscore the complexity that broadband offices face: there are more relevant considerations that factor into subgrantee selection than just cost. What seems cost-effective at first glance may not be the best choice if technological limitations mean that each location isn’t adequately served.
Multifaceted Challenges Require Multifaceted Solutions
Based on the analysis above, LEO satellite can meet the needs of a limited but nonetheless significant percentage of BEAD-eligible unserved and underserved locations nationwide. The updated guidance acknowledges this reality. However, this analysis also shows that the entire toolkit of broadband technologies will be needed to close the U.S.’s broadband availability gap—end-to-end fiber, hybrid fiber coaxial, fixed wireless, and LEO satellite.
A strategic mix of technologies is not only essential to address unique constraints, but also to limit spending within allotted BEAD funds (potentially freeing up funds to support broadband adoption, a Digital Opportunity Dividend). For state and territorial broadband offices, this distinction is more than just a technicality—it’s central to maintaining program integrity and closing the digital divide.
Endnotes
[i] “The term ‘Priority Broadband Project’ means a project that provides broadband service at speeds of no less than 100 megabits per second for downloads and 20 megabits per second for uploads, has a latency less than or equal to 100 milliseconds, and can easily scale speeds over time to meet the evolving connectivity needs of households and businesses and support the deployment of 5G, successor wireless technologies, and other advanced services.” See BEAD Restructuring Policy Notice, at 9.
[ii] This is compiled from various FCC filings (see, e.g., SpaceX. (2017, March 1). SpaceX V-band non-geostationary satellite system: Technical information to supplement Schedule S. Federal Communications Commission. Available at https://fcc.report/IBFS/SAT-LOA-20170301-00027/1190019.pdf), SpaceX reports (see, e.g., SpaceX. (2024). Progress 2024: Connecting the unconnected [Annual progress report]. Available at https://www.starlink.com/public-files/starlinkProgressReport_2024.pdf), and third-party analysis (see, e.g., Puchol, M. (2022, October 2). Modeling Starlink capacity. Medium. Available at https://mikepuchol.com/modeling-starlink-capacity-843b2387f501).
[iii] See Meinrath, S., Grindal, K., Fishbine, G., DeGidio, N., X-Lab, Penn State University, University of New Hampshire, and Breaking Point Solutions, LLC. (2025). Starlink Capacity Analysis V0.2 [Report]. Available at https://thexlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Starlink_Analysis_Working_Paper_v0.2-1.pdf